Mexico: Lower Than Expected Jun Inflation Driven by Non-Food Core and Non-Core Food and Animal Protein; Sticky Services (Ramos)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico: Lower Than Expected Jun Inflation Driven by Non-Food Core and Non-Core Food and Animal Protein; Sticky Services (Ramos)

Goldman Sachs

Core INPC: 0.24% mom (4.03% yoy), versus consensus forecast at 0.31% and GS at

0.31%; prior (May) 4.19% yoy.

Mexico: Core Inflation Measures Sensitive to Supply and Demand Shocks Mexico: Above Target Core Inflation

Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago Percent change, year ago

9 9 9 Headline 9

Supercore/Fundamental-Core

Core

8 Salaries Sensitive Core 8 8 Core ex. Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco 8

7 Energy & Fuel Sensitive Core 7 7 Core ex. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 7

6 FX Sensitive Core 6 6 6

5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4

3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0

Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: INEGI, Banxico, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: INEGI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

DETAILS:

1. Headline consumer prices declined 0.27% mom during Jun (lower than consensus for

-0.15% mom), with annual headline inflation now tracking at 3.37% yoy (vs 3.94% in

May).

2. Core prices rose 0.24% in Jun, below the 0.31% Bloomberg consensus and the

0.39% print a year ago; the annual rate of core inflation is tracking at 4.03% yoy (vs

4.19% yoy May).

3. Consumer prices declined 0.20% during 2H June (3.18% yoy) driven by the large

3.8% decline in perishable food prices, and core printed at a minor 0.02% (3.94%

yoy) driven by core-goods ex-food & beverages (-0.04%) and a 0% services print.

4. Core-services printed at 0.30%, vs 0.38% a year ago and the 0.33% 10-year average,

with the annual measure declining by 8bp from May to 4.48% yoy. Services

ex-education & housing rose 0.31% (vs. 0.48% a year ago) with no visible FIFA World