Australian Metals & Mining: Tempering our near-term enthusiasm

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Australian Metals & Mining: Tempering our near-term enthusiasm

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Australian Metals & Mining

Tempering our near-term enthusiasm

Price Objective Change

Trimming near-term commodity prices 08 July 2026

We update for BofA’s latest commodity price forecasts: Metals Weekly: Spanner in the Equity

works. BofA has tempered near-term commodity price upside against a stronger USD Australia

and risk of rising rates. Our 2028e forecasts remain largely unchanged as structural Metals & Mining

deficits remain supportive across the complex with lithium the exception. Our lower Kate McCutcheon >>

prices estimates lead us to trim our BHP estimates 8% (EBITDA) in FY27e. PO A$65/sh Research Analyst

(from A$70/sh). Key revisions: Merrill+61 2 9226Lynch5728(Australia)

Aluminium: 2026E -9% to US$3290/t; 2027E -12% to US$3813/t. Indonesia supply + kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com

smelter restarts. Chen Jiang >>

Research Analyst

Zinc: 2026E +2% to US$3375/t; 2027E flat at US$2750/t. Ex-China conc. tightness. Merrill Lynch (Australia)

Iron ore: 2026E +0.5% to US$102/t; 2027E flat at US$98/t. Range bound; weak Jason Fairclough >>

Chinese steel demand + elevated port inventories offset policy support. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Copper: 2026E -3.3% to US$12,883/t; 2027E -1.6% to US$15,250/t. Weaker demand

Paul Wiggers de Vries

and China credit impulse though structural deficits remain supportive. Research Analyst

Gold: 2026E -14.4% to US$4360/t; 2027E -2.3% to US$4813/t. Higher for longer rates Merrill Lynch (Australia)

paul.wiggersdevries@bofa.com

and USD weigh on investor demand.

Elaine Faddis >>

Spodumene: 2026E +7% to US$2166/t; 2027E -20% to US$1500/t. Supply increasing. Research Analyst

Thermal coal: M2M cuts but prices supported by El Niño-driven power demand+supply.