Self-storage: GFC-level pain priced in – unwarranted

研报英文原文证据摘录

Self-storage: GFC-level pain priced in – unwarranted

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Europe - Real Estate/Property

Self-storage: GFC‑level pain priced in –

unwarranted

Price Objective Change

Market is pricing an unwarranted recession. Buy 08 July 2026

European self-storage equity valuations appear to be pricing in a recessionary scenario, Equity

with an implied 10% occupancy decline akin to the Global Financial Crisis (2008-09): Europe

Exhibit 2. This assumption looks overly punitive in our view given the current macro Real Estate/Property

backdrop and is not supported by the latest sector data. (see Global storage earnings Equity Research

momentum 2Q’26). We see 1% lfl rent growth in 2026E and 2% in 2027E, driven Markus Kulessa >>

entirely by price (+2%), offset by 1ppt occupancy decline. Only in 2008-09 and 2013 has ResearchBofASE (France)Analyst

the sector seen sub 3% lfl rent growth. This still leaves us with 38% potential total +33 1 8770 0382

markus.kulessa@bofa.com

shareholder return for SHUR, SAFE and BYG (twice the sector average). We hence

Thomas Hynes >>

reiterate our Buy ratings. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Occupancy remains sluggish: 5% earnings and PO cuts +44thomas.hynes2@bofa.com20 7995 9037

While still far from the GFC‑like shock implied by markets, we acknowledge the absence Marc Mozzi >>

of a recovery backdrop and now assume a 5ppt lower stabilised occupancy, based on Research Analyst

BofASE (France)

most recent data. This leads us to cut EPS estimates and our POs for self-storage by 5% +33 1 8770 0374

on average; our Big Yellow PO moves from 1,200p to 1,150p, and our Safestore PO marc.mozzi@bofa.com

moves from 900p to 850p. Unchanged PO for Shurgard thanks to the end of its dilutive

scrip dividend.

SHUR: Shurgard

Attractive vs.