Maximum supply uncertainty

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Maximum supply uncertainty

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Situation Room

Credit Analysis

Maximum supply uncertainty 07 July 2026

The new issue deal from Amazon (AMZN) was a surprise, creating upside risks to our Credit Strategy

$130bn July supply forecast (see report: Situation Room: IG July supply: $130bn). The United States

deal should also inject even more uncertainty into the hyperscaler / AI supply outlook. Cross Product

Prior to Tuesday’s $25bn deal, AMZN had already issued $67bn YtD, more than any other Yuri Seliger

hyperscalers (Exhibit 2). By now, the AI-related supply has reached $270bn across Credit Strategist

currencies, almost double the amount for the full year 2025 ($136bn, Exhibit 1). BofAS+1 646 855 7209

yuri.seliger@bofa.com

Investors are pushing back Sohyun Marie Lee

The unexpected bond deal pushed 30yr hyperscaler spreads from +6 to 15bps wider on CreditBofAS Strategist

the day (Exhibit 3). It contributed to the +8bps jump in 10yr Treasury yield. The new +1 646 855 7217

sohyun.lee@bofa.com

issue deal net performance (new issue concessions plus break performance) was the

worst for hyperscalers since the META deal in Oct-2025 (Exhibit 4), while the

oversubscription level was the lowest among all the recent deals (Exhibit 5). By now we In this report

estimate that the five hyperscalers are trading ~60bps cheap vs. the IG spreads of the

same rating and maturity – by far the widest sector among all (Exhibit 6). June monsoon in M&A

But not too much Daily supply snapshot

We continue to expect strong IG spread performance in 2H-2026 for two reasons. First, Daily dealer inventories update

heavy hyperscaler supply should be mostly priced in. Second, the demand has been

remarkably strong: despite supply jumping +34% higher YoY, spreads remain near Daily HG fund flows