Technical Advantage: Macro turns and breakouts

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Technical Advantage: Macro turns and breakouts

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Technical Advantage

Macro turns and breakouts

Market Analysis

Key takeaways 08 July 2026

Technical Strategy• SPX bear / bull debate: A diamond top favors a summer drop / Or breadth continues to

Global

improve and forms a bullish triangle. FICC and Equity

• US 10Y yield upside breakout suggests it revisits 4.65%, maybe 4.80%. Seasonality is

usually a headwind, unless 3Q18 repeats. Paul Ciana, CMT Technical Strategist

BofAS• EURUSD: We remain bearish and see a bear flag forming. Brent: Oversold rebound paul.ciana@bofa.com

beginning within $65-85 range similar to 2H22.

Jonathan Hartley, CMT

Technical Strategist

BofAS

jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.comS&P 500: Summertime bull/bear debate

The S&P 500 uptrend that began in early April turned rangebound in late May. On May

27, we advised longs to tighten trailing stops or add put protection, a view validated by

See here for a list of our trades.

the subsequent volatility spike and 5% pullback in 1H-June. Our 3Q26 bias remains

Open trades:

corrective. The debate: Bulls see a correction-through-time, triangle continuation

pattern, and improving breadth supporting a summer rally. Bears point to an exhausted See here for abbreviations.

uptrend, diamond top pattern, corrective wave count, weaker momentum, and defensive Abbreviations:

Q3 seasonals in USPC Year 2. Both sides seek validation by price action in July. 1H / 2H = first / second half of

US 10Y Yield: A notable upside breakout d = day

In our 3Q26 outlook, we said the ideal scenario was for 10Y yield to hold above 4.20% wk = week

and make a successful attempt to break higher. It has done exactly that, breaking above m = month

the resistance line of a declining wedge pattern.