Framing Wegovy retention: Why the back-half ramp is too ambitious

研报英文原文证据摘录

Framing Wegovy retention: Why the back-half ramp is too ambitious

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Hims & Hers

Framing Wegovy retention: Why the back-

half ramp is too ambitious

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 37.00 USD | Price: 36.07 USD

Wegovy churn create questions on the 2H margin ramp 09 July 2026

We see emerging signs that retention of new oral Wegovy members could be softer than Equity

some expect, supporting our prior view that the implied 2H EBITDA ramp will be difficult

to achieve. HIMS’ initial oral Wegovy launch in April/May was incredibly strong (HIMS

Key Changeslaunched around April 1), but customers were relatively flat m/m in June per BSM

credit/debit card data (Exhibit 2). Importantly, peer Ro launched oral Wegovy 2-3 months (US$) Previous Current

ahead of HIMS and is seeing both declining new customers and a plateauing base Price Obj. 36.00 37.00

(Exhibit 1). We think HIMS is highly likely to follow a similar trajectory as a meaningful

subset of patients churn after the subscription fee rises from $39 in month 1 to $149 in Allen Lutz, CFA

Research Analyst

month 2. The BSM data for 2Q is unclear (subscribers point to a significant beat, while BofAS

sales data is mixed). Ultimately, HIMS will need to retain branded Wegovy customers in +1 646 855 4380 allen.lutz@bofa.com

order to hit 2H guidance, which we see as incrementally challenging. Reiterate Neutral Dev Weerasuriya

rating, raising PO to $37 on ~34.5x CY26 EV/EBITDA (33.5x prior) given stronger than Research Analyst

expected initial subscriber growth and slightly higher peer multiples. BofAS+1 646 855 5707

dev.weerasuriya@bofa.com

Script data suggests refills are leaking to other channels Hanna Lee

Mail order share of oral Wegovy scripts rose quickly from the low-teens in January to ResearchBofAS Analyst