JunQ: Inflation back in focus. Positioning for Tighter Commodities. Upgrade GLEN to Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

JunQ: Inflation back in focus. Positioning for Tighter Commodities. Upgrade GLEN to Buy

Equity Research

9 July 2026 | 6:51AM BST

EUROPE METALS & MINING

JunQ: Inflation back in focus. Positioning for Tighter Commodities.

Upgrade GLEN to Buy

We remain constructive on copper, zinc and metallurgical coal, where we see Matt Greene

+44(20)7051-0489 |

tightening physical markets driven by supply outages or risk of trade policy. In matt.greene@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

copper, a potential US tariff decision remains a key catalyst, while continued

Riccardo D’Agatatightness in concentrate markets should remain supportive for zinc. In met coal, the +44(20)7051-0958 |

recent Shanxi mine accident and increasingly constructive industry feedback riccardo.dagata@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

following our Singapore trip point to a tighter market into late Q3/Q4 as seasonal

restocking demand builds across India and China. By contrast, we remain cautious on

iron ore, where softer steel fundamentals could see prices test US$90-95/t, albeit

with CMRG negotiations and potential Pilbara disruptions (strikes) providing near

term support. Given this outlook, we upgrade Glencore (GLEN) to Buy from

Neutral, reflecting its exposure to our preferred commodities, potential upside from

Marketing earnings and attractive valuation relative to diversified peers.

Norsk Hydro remains one of the largest debates across the sector, but we

continue to see upside. The stock has been the weakest performer in our coverage

as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a stronger US dollar and expectations of

faster aluminium supply normalisation have weighed on sentiment. While peak

tightness may be behind us, we continue to expect regional and downstream