Emerging Markets Strategy Weekly: Monthly EM Bond Portfolio: A Recalibration in the MoU Trade

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Emerging Markets Strategy Weekly: Monthly EM Bond Portfolio: A Recalibration in the MoU Trade

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09 Jul 2026 12:56:42 ET │ 36 pages

Emerging Markets Strategy Weekly

Monthly EM Bond Portfolio: A Recalibration in the MoU Trade

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

On the Iran/US events over the past 24 hours, it is important to note the US +44-20-7986-9757

also revoked a waiver on new sales of Iranian oil. That is significant for the luis.costa@citi.com

Iranian regime, in the current macro context. Given the price relief on Brent

over the past weeks, the 8-9% upside reaction over the past few days Rohit Garg AC

makes sense in our view. Recent geopolitical developments are serving as a rohit.garg@citi.com

good moment for further down recalibration in risky positions (especially

among the EM liquid positions). In the context of EM curves, more Donato Guarino AC

specifically CEE curves, the retracement in received positions may continue donato.guarino@citi.com

as flows tried to capitalise on the recent lower CPIs, so we expect some AC Bhumika Guptareflux in CZK and HUF receivers at this point. In Latam, the clear bias is still

on the FX side of things. We still like EURBRL downside exposure, and we bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

favour COP longs as well. AC Alexander Rozhetskin

alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

Asia – We retain +0.3% cash o/w in 5y IndoGB and 5y IGB respectively using the cash

taken from 5y Thai GB (-0.6%). On FX, we retain o/w MYR (+0.6%) against u/w THB Ivan Riveros,CFA AC

(-0.3%) and u/w PHP (-0.3%). This leaves our exposure of u/w THB at a total of (- ivan.riveros@citi.com

0.9%) vs. o/w INR (+0.3%), o/w IDR (+0.3%), and o/w MYR (+0.3%).

Nikola Apostolov AC

CEEMEA – Among CEE curves, the retracement in received positions may continue nikola.apostolov@citi.com