North America Transportation: 2Q26 Transports Earnings Preview: Favorable 2Q earnings setup, but upside likely modest;upgrade on recent pull-back

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North America Transportation: 2Q26 Transports Earnings Preview: Favorable 2Q earnings setup, but upside likely modest;upgrade on recent pull-back

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09 Jul 2026 05:56:42 ET │ 85 pages

North America Transportation

2Q26 Transports Earnings Preview: Favorable 2Q earnings setup, but

upside likely modest; upgrade on recent pull-back

Ariel Rosa AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-5874

Transports 2Q earnings are likely to be among the strongest in years, as ari.rosa@citi.com

companies benefit from significantly tighter capacity conditions coupled Ben Mohr

with moderately improving demand. We expect solid y-y EPS gains

reflecting higher truckload rates and margin recovery with robust outlooks +1-212-816-2110

signaling continued strength over the coming quarters. Last month we ben.mohr@citi.com

downgraded a number of trucking stocks given extended valuations, as we Adrian Baran

felt the improved supply-demand backdrop was well-understood (and +1-212-816-2920

largely priced-in) by investors. However, given the pull-back in shares of

recent weeks, we move KNX and SAIA back to Buy and ODFL to Neutral, as adrian.baran@citi.com

our price targets (largely unchanged) now imply sufficient upside to support

our ratings changes. We remain concerned on valuations across much of our

coverage, with upside to shares likely to be far more modest in 2H26 relative

to 1H, but acknowledge it is difficult to remain negative into rising earnings.

Market View: Moderate upside expectations — We return to Buy on KNX and SAIA

and Neutral on ODFL, as the pull-back in share prices in recent weeks now offers

sufficient upside to support our ratings changes (KNX and ODFL TPs unchanged at

$90 and $228, respectively, SAIA TP to $488 from $524). We expect solid earnings