Canadian National Railway, Inc. (CNR.CN, CNI) 2Q26: Solid 2Q beat, improved volume and EPS outlook should lift estimates

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Canadian National Railway, Inc. (CNR.CN, CNI) 2Q26: Solid 2Q beat, improved volume and EPS outlook should lift estimates

NSTEIN FLASHMAIL

24 July 2026

David Vernon

+1 917 344 8333

Airfreight & Surface Transportation david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com

Canadian National Railway Co Justine Weiss

+1 917 344 8433

Rating justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Specialist Sales

Price Target Steve Song

+1 917 344 8401

CNR.CN 196.00 CAD steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

CNI 139.16 USD

Canadian National Railway, Inc. (CNR.CN, CNI) 2Q26: Solid 2Q

beat, improved volume and EPS outlook should lift estimates

CN reported 2Q26 adj. diluted EPS of C$2.08, beating the street / our estimate by ~7% (Exhibit 1) on better-than-expected top

line performance (+3% vs. consensus / +1% vs. our estimate) that offset slightly elevated adj. opex vs. consensus estimates (1%

worse even with the adjusted number excluding $17M of advisory costs related to rail consolidation matters, with an after-tax

impact pf $0.02). This top-line beat was RPU-driven vs. consensus estimates, with aggregate freight RPU landing 3.4% above street

expectations; in particular, Automotive, Metals & Minerals, Intermodal, and Forest Products surprised to the upside on RPU (Exhibit

2). Thanks to the strong pricing environment (obviously helped by fuel surcharges), adj. OR came in at 62.2, 100bps better than

consensus, and translating into a 6% positive surprise to estimates. Relative to our numbers, the beat was a little more balanced

between revenue and cost.

Outlook for FY26 has improved, with RTM growth now expected to be up LSD YoY (Exhibit 3), up from the prior flattish guide (Exhibit

4), with the new midpoint now landing nearly in-line with consensus expectations for the volume metric (-40bps). Moreover, EPS