Cheniere Energy (LNG/CQP): 2Q26 Preview: Solid Quarter; Watching Next Steps Towards Debottlenecking Execution and SPL T7 FID

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Cheniere Energy (LNG/CQP): 2Q26 Preview: Solid Quarter; Watching Next Steps Towards Debottlenecking Execution and SPL T7 FID

Goldman Sachs Cheniere Energy (LNG/CQP)

2Q26 EBITDA of $906m vs consensus of $862m (+5%) and our prior estimate of $891m

(+2%) with our change driven by slightly higher optimization and lower opex.

n Volumes. We expect a step down in volumes recognized in the period QoQ to 677

tbtu vs 1Q26 of 689 tbtu for LNG largely on seasonality (warmer weather

contributes to less efficient train production vs the winter months) and vs 549 tbtu

YoY (no major maintenance turnaround + contributions for CCL Stg 3).

n Margins. We expect a modest step down for LNG in total EBITDA earned per volume

recognized in the period, as we expect headwinds from the absence of the $380m

one-time tax benefit in 1Q and fewer volumes to be available for CMI this quarter

(more volumes sold to long-term contracts starting in 2Q) to offset benefits from

higher spot prices in the quarter. Specifically, we expect LNG to generate

$2.60/mmbtu of EBITDA vs $3.40/mmbtu of EBITDA. Key risks to our estimate

include margins on forward sold volumes and better than expected optimization

(particularly given the higher JKM spread over TTF and LNG’s long shipping

position).

We expect FY26 EBITDA for LNG of $7.83b, just above consensus of $7.79b (+0.5%)

but still just above the top end of the guidance range of $7.25-7.75b. Positive

updates to watch for on the call include: 1) progress on CCL Stage 3, 2) spot margin

tailwinds LNG captured from strong prices in 2Q26, and 3) optimization opportunities

realized YTD.

Key Focus Areas

n Commissioning on CCL Stage 3 tracking well - watching T7 timeline. Cheniere

announced substantial completion of CCL Stage 3 T6 in early June, at the early-end