What if 21.5% RoTE in 2030...?

研报英文原文证据摘录

What if 21.5% RoTE in 2030...?

Equity Research

European Banks

9 July 2026

ING Groep

We see a credible path to c.19% RoTE by 2030, with upside to

21.5%, driven by structurally higher liability margins, tight

cost control and improved Wholesale Banking profitability. INGA.AS/INGA NA OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

We believe ING can close part of its productivity gap vs European Banks POSITIVE

peers. This underpins our above cons. EPS forecasts Unchanged

FY26e-28e Price Target raised 8% fromEUREUR32.5030.10

Price (07-Jul-26) EUR 28.35

Whilst our central RoTE1 scenario is c.19% by 2030, we present a bull and bear case of 21.5% and Potential Upside/Downside +14.6%

16.6% (Figure 7), respectively, reflecting different assumptions for NII, fees and costs. At the core Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

of our thesis we believe INGA can close part of its productivity gap versus European peers

(Figure 12). While the bank combines high customer balances per employee vs EU peers (Figure Market Cap (EUR mn) 82791

13) but is only middle of the pack in terms of income per FTE (Figure 14) and weaker cost Shares Outstanding (mn) 2920.35

efficiency than leading franchises, we believe this creates a significant opportunity to improve Free Float (%) 99.37

returns through both higher revenue intensity and tighter cost control. Together, these factors 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 7.6

underpin our conviction that ING can deliver materially higher returns by 2030 vs our estimate Dividend Yield (%) 3.83

of 14.7% in 2026e. Our FY26e-28e EPS estimates are 4-8% above company compiled consensus Return on Equity TTM (%) 12.54

(Figure 62). Current BVPS (EUR) 17.68

Source: Bloomberg

• We see ING's deposit franchise as a key driver of RoTE uplift out to 2030: While