Energy Transfer LP (ET): 2Q26 Preview: Upside This Quarter from Marketing, Upside in 2027+ From Higher Permian Gas Growth

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Energy Transfer LP (ET): 2Q26 Preview: Upside This Quarter from Marketing, Upside in 2027+ From Higher Permian Gas Growth

Goldman Sachs Energy Transfer LP (ET)

lower non-fee based margin (lower Waha prices offsetting stronger NGL pricing)

modestly offsetting volume growth. Our 2026 estimates increase on higher Permian

volume growth following the in-service of incremental pipeline capacity in 2H26 -

we now estimate modestly lower volume growth and lower near term non-fee

margin as we expect a slower recovery for Waha prices vs. prior.

n NGL and Refined Products likely down QoQ: We expect 2Q26 EBITDA of $1,086m

vs. 1Q26 of $1,163m and above our prior estimate of $1,057m. We expect NGL frac

margin to be down QoQ on lower fees offset by stronger Terminal and Transport

volume and rates. We expect ET to benefit from higher NGL export demand and

potential spot cargo opportunities (despite the facilities being largely contracted).

We update our estimates to reflect recent NGL export data and higher marketing

gains on stronger NGL prices vs. prior. Our outer year estimates also increase on

stronger long term Permian NGL production growth.

n Crude likely down QoQ: We expect EBITDA of $751m vs. 1Q26 of $869m and

$742m. The sequential decline is driven by one time deficiency payments in 1Q26

and inventory adjustment benefits offset by hedging.

n Intrastate likely down QoQ. We expect 2Q26 EBITDA of $369m vs. 1Q26 of $437m.

The sequential decline is driven by seasonal weakness - we continue to see a wide

Waha differential and elevated natural gas sales margin YoY, though modesty below

1Q26, which we note was also partially impacted by a one-time benefit from Winter

Storm Fern.

n Interstate likely down QoQ. We expect 2Q26 EBITDA of $486m vs. 1Q26 of $519m.