Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN.AX): Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN.AX): Model Update

Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN.AX)

09 July 2026 Citi Research

Evolution Mining Ltd

Valuation

We value EVN using a combination of NAV (A$10.63/sh) 1.2x and 24-month forward EV/EBITDA 8.5x. This yields a rounded

value, and target price, of A$15.00/sh. For our sum-of-the-parts NAV valuation, we apply a real WACC of 5% to discounted

cash flows for the gold assets, and 7.5% for the copper assets (EHM and Northparkes) over the life of the group’s individual

assets. As we acribe a higher WACC to the copper assets, we value EVN at a 1x EV/EBITDA premium to ASX100 gold peers as a

‘copper premium’. Long-term assumptions include US$3,600/oz for gold, US$11,000/t for copper and an AUDUSD exchange

rate of 0.70. The NAV valuation is net of cash and overheads. Earnings multiples reflect those of EVN’s peer group and historical

values.

Risks

This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model, but we do not believe assigning a High Risk rating is supported given

our expectations of cash flow and debt maturity profile. Thus, a High Risk rating has not been applied. Risks to achieving our

target price include:

– Higher-than-expected operating costs and/or failure to catalyse further nameplate expansions.

– Slower-than-expected timing to reach the 1.1Mtpa Stage 1 turnaround at Red Lake, and downside to cost-out.

– Macroeconomic developments affecting the gold price and exchange rates.

– Operational issues including geotechnical events or grade reconciliation. Also failure to replenish resources and reserves and

extend the life of mine.

– The gold or copper price, which may rise above or fall below our expectations.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have