Smartphone Update; Memory Risk Continues to Pressure CY26 Units

研报英文原文证据摘录

Smartphone Update; Memory Risk Continues to Pressure CY26 Units

Equity Research

IT Hardware and Communications Equipment

8 July 2026

Smartphone Update; Memory Risk

Continues to Pressure CY26 Units

Following a fairly stable 2025 with units 2% growth, we IT Hardware and Communications

continue to lower our 2026 estimates as we expect the Equipment NEUTRAL

memory dynamic to elevate in 2H. We now expect CY26E IT Hardware and Communications

units to be down ~12% compared to our prior view of ~10% Equipment

decline. Tim Long +1 212 526 4043

tim.long@barclays.com

CY25 global smartphone units had modest growth of 2% (we had estimated ~3%), and we BCI, US

previously lowered our CY26 unit growth outlook to -10% in light of the memory backdrop. With Alyssa Shreves

this update, we further lower our CY26 units forecast to -12% (from -10%) as we expect the +1 212 526 7570

negative impact on smartphone sales to persist and potentially even worsen through the back alyssa.shreves@barclays.com

half of 2026. We continue to expect a gradual recovery in CY27 and keep our ~6% unit growth BCI, US

outlook unchanged. We have seen the pressures from memory more prominent on the low-end Mary Lenox

models as memory constitutes a higher percentage of the BoM and it is harder to pass along +1 212 526 6277

incremental costs. As a result, our high-level model shows a significant increase in average mary.lenox@barclays.com

smartphone hold times. BCI, US

Clarisse Yu

FIGURE 1. Total Smartphone Analysis

+1 212 526 7025

Total Smartphone C201 C201 C202 C202 C202 C202 C202 C2026 C2027 clarisse.yu@barclays.com C2025 Analysis 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 E E BCI, US

4,56

Total Subs 3,513 3,703 3,943 4,167 4,365 0 4,763 4,948 5,140 5,351

Net Adds 216 190 241 223 199 195 203 184 192 211

Total Smartphones 1,23