Still more to go

研报英文原文证据摘录

Still more to go

IdeaM

Exhibit 1: Nubeqa continues to gain Exhibit 2: Lynkuet is ramping-up in

market share in the US (TRx) the US

Source: IQVIA Source: IQVIA

The pipeline represents upside to our and consensus estimates. We have limited

expectations for the pharma pipeline beyond asundexian at this stage. We see the

Parkinson's Disease pipeline treatment at high risk (cell therapy P3 data 2027, gene

therapy P2 data 2028); new asset PER-001 acquired with Perfuse Therapeutics

(intravitreal implant delivering a small molecule endothelin receptor antagonist)

should enter P2b/P3 for Glaucoma and Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) in 2026. Bayer

will have P2 data for a gene therapy program in heart failure (AB-1002) in 2026

which could increase interest for the program. The company will also disclose PoC

P2 data for 2 cardiovascular asset in 2026: Nurandociguat (sGC activator in chronic

kidney disease) and Inclocibart (anti-a2AP in acute ischemic stroke and pulmonary

embolism).

Our €65 price target implies a 16.5% conglomerate discount vs our SOTP. We

value Bayer through a DCF, however, for illustrative purposes our updated €65 PT

can be reconciled with a sum of the parts; assuming the Bayer pharma business

trades in line with European pharma peers (AZN, GSK, NOVN, NOVO, ROP, SAN),

Crop Science trades in-line with Corteva, and Consumer Health trades in line with

peers (Haleon, Kenvue, Reckitt). On this basis, our €65 PT implies a 16.5%

conglomerate discount and an EV/EBITDA multiple of ~11.0x for Bayer (compared to

~12.4x for pharma peers, ~14.3x for Corteva and ~12.4x for Consumer peers; and

compares to Bayer's current valuation of 9.1x 2026 EV/EBITDA). Removing net debt,

pension liabilities and provisions (including litigation provisions) leads to an equity

value/share of €65.