Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Weir Group- WeirPLC Group(WEIR.L) PLC (WEIR.L)

An attractive exposure to the aftermarket segment offset by a lack of catalysts

PRICE TARGET 2,700p EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our PT is based on a blended average of SOTP and DCF. Our thesis is based on the following three

In our SOTP we apply a multiple of 15x 2027e EV/EBITA to Weir's Minerals division, 14.0x points: 1) Weir has attractive exposure to

2027e EV/EBITA to the ESCO division, and 14x to central costs. A discount to mining peers aftermarket revenues (the highest within

given slower growth. the European mining equipment segment);

In our DCF we assume an 8.2% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth rate. however 2) the company's balance sheet

headroom has now been deployed with the

3,264p acquisition of Micromine, which implies

Consensus Price Target Distribution 2,500.00p 4,000.00p limited potential for further inorganic

MS PT growth; furthermore 3) Weir's margin

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates improvement story has now largely played

out and we see limited upside to consensus

earnings.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

GBp

65% Overweight

3,200p3,200p(+36.87%)3,200p(+36.87%)(+36.87%) 35% Equal-weight

3200 0% Underweight

MS Rating

2,700p2,700p(+15.48%)2,700p(+15.48%)(+15.48%)

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

2400 2,338p2,338p2,338p

2,150p2,150p(-8.04%)2,150p(-8.04%)(-8.04%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE 3,200p BASE CASE 2,700p BEAR CASE 2,150p

15.0x bull case 2027e EBITA 13.7x base case 2027e EBITA 12x bear case 2027e EBITA

We assume organic growth of +10% and We forecast organic growth of 7% and a We assume organic growth of +2.5% in