Ambev (ABEV): 2Q2026 preview and feedback from IR call

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ambev (ABEV): 2Q2026 preview and feedback from IR call

Equity Research

8 July 2026 | 9:00AM BRT

In our view, Ambev’s risk-reward into Q2 is skewed to the downside. After delivering Thiago Bortoluci

+55(11)3372-0104 |

moderate volume growth in Q1 (+1% y/y in Brazil Beer), consensus has quickly thiago.bortoluci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

upgraded its expectations to assume a full recovery from last year in Q2 and the

Nicolas Sussmann

benefits from the FIFA World Cup, leaving what we consider limited room for positive +55(11)3371-9880 |

surprises. We expect Brazil Beer volume growth of +5% y/y in Q2 (vs. slightly higher nicolas.sussmann@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

buy-side consensus) and, more importantly, pricing to decelerate closer to inflation,

as the carry-over impact from last year’s adjustments fully fades, and limited

operating leverage on SG&A, on a combination of higher bonus accrual, the FIFA

World Cup marketing calendar, and increased fuel prices. Elsewhere, we anticipate:

negative market share in Brazil Non-Alcoholic Beverages; Argentina and Bolivia both

pressuring LAS; a mixed CAC in the Dominican Republic; and continued industry

pressures in Canada. Our revised consolidated EPS forecast for the quarter is now

-7% below Bloomberg consensus. We enter the earnings season with increased

conviction in our Sell rating - not because of execution, as we do see merits

particularly in Ambev’s portfolio strategy, but more because of the structural

challenges we anticipate for the category and the rapid changes in consumer

demand. Ambev is scheduled to report Q2 earnings on July 30.

Main takeaways from IR call

n Management reinforced its view that ongoing weakness in Brazil is mostly related

to weather (c.