Hungary — The Probability of Euro Entry

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hungary — The Probability of Euro Entry

Economics Research

8 July 2026 | 2:12PM BST

CEEMEA ECONOMICS ANALYST

n Hungary’s Tisza government aims to meet the Maastricht criteria by 2030 and Kevin Daly

+44(20)7774-5908 | kevin.daly@gs.com

has committed to Euro adoption. We believe the prospect of Hungary joining the Goldman Sachs International

Euro area is realistic. Public support for the Euro is the highest of all non-member Johan Allen

+44(20)7774-7122 |

states. And, while satisfying the convergence criteria required for Euro entry will johan.allen@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

be challenging, it is achievable in our view. Reducing the government deficit

below 3% will be supported by lower borrowing costs and stronger growth on

the back of EU-funded investment. A necessary early step towards meeting the

criteria will be to lower Hungary’s inflation target from 3% to the Euro area’s 2%,

something the MNB has suggested it is considering irrespective of Euro entry.

n The Hungarian government plans to announce a revised budget programme in

October or November and publish its Euro adoption plan at the same time, or

shortly thereafter. In our view, the most likely timeline is for the government to

complete the Maastricht convergence process within the current parliamentary

term, thereby fulfilling its manifesto pledge, and to campaign on Euro adoption in

the April 2030 elections. If all goes to plan, Hungary would then enter the Euro

area on 1 January 2031.

n If Hungary adopts the Euro, its swap yields will fully converge to the Euro’s.

Hungarian 5y/5y swap spreads vs. the Euro therefore provide a clear and

relatively liquid expression of the market-implied probability of Euro adoption.

This spread has fallen sharply since the April 12 elections but remains close to