OMA Airports (OMAB.MX): Traffic momentum to accelerate in 2H26 driven by new routes

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OMA Airports (OMAB.MX): Traffic momentum to accelerate in 2H26 driven by new routes

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08 Jul 2026 17:21:16 ET │ 13 pages

OMA Airports (OMAB.MX)

Traffic momentum to accelerate in 2H26 driven by new routes

CITI'S TAKE

OMAB remains the airport with better traffic dynamics, and it is likely to

remain so, at least during 2H26, given its mainly domestic traffic profile.

YTD OMAB has launched 29 new routes, that supports an acceleration of Buy

traffic growth from 2,4% in 1H26 to 6.3% 2H26 to match our 4.5% YoY Price (08 Jul 26 14:00) P$236.19

expansion. OMAB remains the better balance airport stock between

Target price P$270.00valuation and momentum. We keep our Buy rating and our P$270/share

2026 YE TP. Expected share price return 14.3%

Expected dividend yield 5.4%

Model update — We update our model ahead of the 2Q26 set of results (expected Expected total return 19.7%

end-July) with a relative in-line set of traffic dynamics reported as of June' Traffic

Report. We hence keep our 2026YE TP at P$270.0/share and our Buy rating. We see Market Cap P$94,239M

OMAB trading at 9.2x-8.1x EV/EBITDA, while offering a 10.9%-12.1% 2026/2027 US$5,395M

FCFE. We see OMAB trading at an implied 9.5% nominal IRR, and a 5.0% real, both

unlevered.

2026 Adj. EBITDA points to P$11.3bn (+10.7% YoY) driven by (i) the 2026/30 MDP

Price Performanceplan tariff adjustment first hike, and a (ii) 4.5% YoY traffic growth. Still our Adj.

EBITDA forecast being 2.3% below consensus and a +0.6% above our old forecast. (RIC: OMAB.MX, BB: OMAB MF)

2Q26 preview — We forecast an Adj. EBITDA at P$2,7bn (+6% YoY / +12,3% QoQ),

2,4% below consensus, driven mainly by (i) the 2026/30 MDP plan tariff adjustment

first hike, with (ii) relatively flat 2Q26 traffic growth (+0.4% YoY). We forecast a net