India Economics: Investment trends: Combining the Macro and Firm Level Data

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India Economics: Investment trends: Combining the Macro and Firm Level Data

Viewpoint |

08 Jul 2026 11:01:04 ET │ 16 pages

India Economics

Investment trends: Combining the Macro and Firm Level Data

CITI'S TAKE

Economics

We analyze the balance sheet data of ~26,000 listed and unlisted

companies to get a different dimension of the private corporate capex Samiran Chakraborty AC

growth in FY25 and FY26. While there is some moderation in capex growth +91-22-6175-9876

from the post-pandemic spurt (avg ~20% growth), the FY25 all companies samiran.chakraborty@citi.com

(14%) and FY26 listed companies (11%) capex growth appear to be

reasonably robust. The Middle East conflict has punctuated this investment Baqar M Zaidi, CFA AC

recovery with our high-frequency investment GATI falling sharply. However, +91-22-6175-9877

we expect a reversal now and outline the reasons behind our optimism. baqar.zaidi@citi.com

Demand visibility from FY26 stimulus, availability of ample funding, lower

rates, healthy balance sheets and elevated capacity utilization point

towards this recovery. We also provide detailed sectoral color on the capex

build-up for both listed and unlisted spaces in FY25 and FY26, with views

on some of the sectors where there is more optimism going forward.

Investment trends in FY25 — In the new GDP series, real private corporate

investment growth recovered to 6.3%YY in FY25 from just 1.7% in FY24 (share in

total investment 32%), led by investment in intellectual property. This trend is

different compared to the nominal capex growth derived from the balance sheet

data of ~26,000 listed and unlisted companies which show modest deceleration

in FY25 (14%) as against FY24 (18%). Capex growth for unlisted companies (20%)

outscores the listed ones (8%).