Metal Matters: We expect copper price upside from September with medium-term bullish view intact.

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Metal Matters: We expect copper price upside from September with medium-term bullish view intact.

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08 Jul 2026 11:24:34 ET │ 13 pages

Metal Matters

We expect copper price upside from September with medium-term

bullish view intact.

Tom Mulqueen AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-4559

We publish April and May data for our global copper end-use consumption tom.mulqueen@citi.com

tracker. Negative headline implied y/y copper end-use growth reflects the AC Shreyas Madabushidistortive base effect of the policy-led spike in reported China renewable

additions in 2Q’25. Implied growth in global copper end-use elsewhere has +91-22-4277-5048

been tepid, but headline manufacturing sentiment remains robust. We shreyas.madabushi@citi.com

expect renewed price upside from September and see copper touching AC Maximilian J Layton

$15k/t within a year even as copper tariff dynamics and gold market +44-20-7986-4556headwinds threaten to limit gains through the summer (July and August).

max.layton@citi.com

Our conviction in near-term copper price direction is limited. We think copper will Wenyu Yao AC

struggle to rally through the summer in our base case that US copper tariff fears +44-20-7986-4551

fade and if bearish gold-price momentum is sustained — Our call for copper upside wenyu.yao@citi.com

through June failed to materialise as a hawkish Fed surprised us, despite reliance

versus June’s broader commodity price pullback (e.g. gold, oil, aluminium). However, Kenny Hu, CFA AC

fading fears of potential Section 232 US tariffs on copper cathode risk weighing on +65-6657-3873

sentiment in the coming weeks (given President Trump’s end-June review deadline kenny.x.hu@citi.com

has passed and assuming our base case of no tariff announcement holds).

Ephrem Ravi AC