ASUR Airports (ASURB.MX): Trimming TP to P$630/share on softer traffic recovery outlook

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ASUR Airports (ASURB.MX): Trimming TP to P$630/share on softer traffic recovery outlook

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08 Jul 2026 11:40:08 ET │ 14 pages

ASUR Airports (ASURB.MX)

Trimming TP to P$630/share on softer traffic recovery outlook

CITI'S TAKE

The June traffic report was a negative surprise, as the World Cup appears to

have cannibalized traffic rather than provided the expected boost. More

importantly, this could become a structural headwind if travelers have Buy

already allocated a significant portion of their 2026 travel budgets to World Price (07 Jul 26 14:00) P$507.53

Cup-related trips. We will therefore reduce our Target Price to P$630/share

and reiterate our Buy rating, primarily on valuation grounds, despite a still Target price P$630.00↓

challenging traffic outlook. from P$690.00

Expected share price return 24.1%

Model Update — We update our ASUR model ahead of 2Q26 set of results to Expected dividend yield 5.9%incorporate a weak June'26 Traffic Report and the recent P$20.0/share extra

ordinary dividend. We hence trim our Target Price to P$630/share, from Expected total return 30.0%

P$690/share, while remain buyers mainly on valuation as we admit the 2H26 traffic Market Cap P$140,611M

dynamics are likely to remain challenging. We see ASUR trading at 9.8x-7.4x

US$8,049MEV/EBITDA, while offering a 3.1%-7.8% 2026/2027 FCFE. We see ASUR trading at an

implied 10.3% nominal IRR, and a 5.7% real, both unlevered.

2026 EBITDA points to P$23.2bn — Our estimate is 1.4% above consensus and

implies 14% YoY growth, driven by the consolidation of Motiva's portfolio in 2H26. Price Performance

Excluding this effect, our forecast would imply a 0.7% YoY decline. The June traffic (RIC: ASURB.MX, BB: ASURB MF)

report has renewed concerns regarding the pace of traffic recovery, as the World Cup