Global Metals & Mining: India, Middle-East and ASEAN continue to dominate steel capacity additions in the medium term

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Global Metals & Mining: India, Middle-East and ASEAN continue to dominate steel capacity additions in the medium term

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08 Jul 2026 12:15:17 ET │ 9 pages

Global Metals & Mining

India, Middle-East and ASEAN continue to dominate steel capacity

additions in the medium term

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

47mn tonnes of steel capacity are 'under construction' with a further 92mn ephrem.ravi@citi.com

tonnes 'planned' during '25-'28 according to the OECD. The amount of new Wenyu Yaosteel capacity ‘planned’ is c.10mn tonnes higher than a year ago;

unsurprising as global steel demand growth has stalled over the last couple +44-20-7986-4551

of years. Over 75% of the new capacity is in Asia and the Middle East where wenyu.yao@citi.com

demand is growing. For capacity that is coming up in developed markets it Jack Shang, CFA

is likely to be offset with closures of old furnaces. The new capacity under jack.shang@citi.comconstruction is enough to meet only 0.5% p.a demand growth rate and even

assuming 'planned' capacities come onstream by 2028, it is only enough to Krishan M Agarwal

meet a 1.5% p.a growth rate. Also note that these are gross additions, krishan.agarwal@citi.com

without considering closures, and we expect only very small increases in the

medium term. Tom Mulqueen

tom.mulqueen@citi.com

The 3-year forward gross capacity additions at 129 mn tonnes at 2Q’ 26 — When Shashi Shekhar, CFA

the OECD issued an update of its estimate of capacity under construction for 2024-

shashi.shekhar@citi.com27 it was 165mn tonnes, but rolling that forward by a year it was 139 mn tonnes in

2025-2028. However, only around 34% of that are actual projects 'under Omnath Sinh

construction' and the rest are 'planned'. The proportion of projects 'under omnath.sinh@citi.com