Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Bunzl PLC (BNZL.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Organic growth (%) 0.4 2.1 2.0 2.0

M&A growth (%) 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0

EBITA margin (%) 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6

Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Bunzl will report 1H26 results on 1st September RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

2026 Acceleration in organic growth and margin

Macroeconomic indicators around recession and accretion from stronger inflation driving higher Sales / 12,181

inflation, FX cash flows, which could increase capacity to do Revenue 11,804 12,344

Acquisition activity accretive M&A. (£, mn) 12,170

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Volume weakness if a recession materialises 1,174

EBITDA APAC, ex Japan, Mainland further and hits organic growth and margins, in 1,114 1,200 0-10% (£, mn) China and India combination with continued high wage 1,171

0-10% Latin America inflation. Lower M&A spend or higher deal

10-20% Europe ex UK multiples could depress growth and returns.

10-20% UK 586 Net income

50-60% North America 429 609

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (£, mn) 565

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 83.2%

180.2

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x EPS

139.0 189.6MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% (p) 178.4

1/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

MOST Horizon exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposure.