REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward Update
UpdateM
Risk Reward – Bunzl PLC (BNZL.L)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e
Organic growth (%) 0.4 2.1 2.0 2.0
M&A growth (%) 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
EBITA margin (%) 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1
INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Bunzl will report 1H26 results on 1st September RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e
2026 Acceleration in organic growth and margin
Macroeconomic indicators around recession and accretion from stronger inflation driving higher Sales / 12,181
inflation, FX cash flows, which could increase capacity to do Revenue 11,804 12,344
Acquisition activity accretive M&A. (£, mn) 12,170
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Volume weakness if a recession materialises 1,174
EBITDA APAC, ex Japan, Mainland further and hits organic growth and margins, in 1,114 1,200 0-10% (£, mn) China and India combination with continued high wage 1,171
0-10% Latin America inflation. Lower M&A spend or higher deal
10-20% Europe ex UK multiples could depress growth and returns.
10-20% UK 586 Net income
50-60% North America 429 609
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (£, mn) 565
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 83.2%
180.2
HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x EPS
139.0 189.6MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% (p) 178.4
1/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund
MOST Horizon exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short
the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposure.
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