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The Midterm Elections Playbook
研报英文原文证据摘录
The Midterm Elections Playbook
Equity Research
8 July 2026
U.S. Equity Strategy
Midterm election headwind for equities tends to peak in late
summer. Post-midterms, equity demand improves and Tech
typically dominates; the sector likes lower policy uncertainty U.S. Equity Strategy
given its global footprint, especially re: trade and national Venu+1 212Krishna,526 7328CFA
venu.krishna@barclays.comsecurity. Our base case election outcome is divided gov't.
BCI, US
Key Points & Highlights Rex Feng
+ 1 212 526 6114
• Midterm election year underperformance tends to peak in late summer. Weaker S&P 500 rex.feng@barclays.com
returns in a midterm election year are a well-documented phenomenon, but the effect is not BCI, US
spread evenly across the run-up to election day. The lag vs. non-midterm years is most
Riddhiman Dass
material in August & September, likely as election-related uncertainty and risk premiums +1 212 526 0850
reach their maximum. Our derivatives strategists offer several near-term hedging ideas riddhiman.dass@barclays.com
post-2Q re-risking and amid selectively extended positioning. BCI, US
• Following the election, risk-on sentiment tends to pick up materially, leading to better- Tianqi Feng
+1 212 526 9179 than-average S&P 500 returns over the subsequent year. Tech, Growth and Quality are the
tianqi.feng@barclays.com
most consistent leaders over this time frame, outperforming in all but one of the last nine BCI, US
midterm cycles. We remain Positive on Tech as valuations have come in YTD and expanding AI
capex should create EPS headroom for component names. We prefer Growth to Value despite Atharva Weling
+1 212 526 3204 higher rate risk, favoring Growth's EPS upside as revisions breadth is still relatively narrow.
atharva.weling@barclays.com
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