Raise PO; Expect significant earnings improvement through FY3/28

研报英文原文证据摘录

Raise PO; Expect significant earnings improvement through FY3/28

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Kansai Paint (4613)

Raise PO; Expect significant earnings

improvement through FY3/28

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 3,200 JPY | Price: 2,799 JPY

06 July 2026

Raise PO from ¥2,700 to ¥3,200; reiterate Buy Equity

We leave our earnings forecasts for FY3/28 onward broadly unchanged, but raise our

Price Objective to reflect higher valuation multiples for the paint sector following the

decline in oil prices. Our revised PO is based on 10.2x FY3/28E EV/EBITDA (vs. 8.7x Key Changes

previously), reflecting a 1.5x increase in the valuation multiple applied to each business (¥) Previous Current

segment. We see substantial earnings growth through FY3/28, which enhances the Price Obj. 2,700 3,200

stock's appeal. Our Buy thesis is supported by proactive shareholder returns and 2027E Rev (m) 610,500 617,600

medium-term earnings growth driven by improvements in India and Africa. 2028E Rev (m) 627,200 632,000

2029E Rev (m) 646,500 651,000

Revise estimates: product price hike progressing 2027E EPS 124.13 121.62

For FY3/27, we revise our estimates to reflect lower raw material prices and the impact 2028E EPS 205.74 188.23

of product price increases. We believe profit contributions from the acquisition of 2029E EPS 245.52 212.34

Polisan Kansai Boya (PKB) and other factors will offset weak paint demand in Japan, and 2027E EBITDA (m) 68,700 82,000

therefore leave our FY3/28 onward estimates largely unchanged. We lift our investment 2028E EBITDA (m) 92,200 93,500

assumptions for Kansai Paint following the PKB acquisition and reduce our share- 2029E EBITDA (m) 101,200 102,000

buyback assumptions, reflecting the company's shareholder-return policy under which