Smurfit Westrock (SW): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

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Smurfit Westrock (SW): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Equity Research

7 July 2026 | 3:39PM BST

We update our estimates for Smurfit Westrock ahead of its 2Q26 results, as well as to Gabriel Simoes

+44(20)7051-6922 |

reflect the latest FX trends and the mark-to-market of commodity prices. gabriel.simoes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Our 2Q26 EBITDA is 4% ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data. We revise our Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

+44(20)7552-5984 |

2Q26 EBITDA down by 1% vs. our previous estimate, mostly reflecting a more georgina.fraser@gs.com

cautious view on the impact of higher OCC prices and energy costs on 2Q results; this

Thomas Wardis partly offset by the higher prices we now expect for North America and Europe +44(20)7051-2527 |

based on higher benchmark prices we have observed in 2Q26. Despite our slightly thomas.ward@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

lower EBITDA number vs. our previous estimate, we are still ahead of consensus, Marcus von Scheele

expecting better pricing across all regions, but anticipating a higher-than-consensus +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

volume decline in North America. Our margins are slightly higher than consensus for Goldman Sachs International

the quarter (+34bps). Our EBITDA number for the quarter is close to the top end of

SW’s guidance of $1.1-1.2bn.

Our revised EBITDA estimates are now +1%/+2%/+1% vs. Visible Alpha

Consensus Data in 2026/27/28. We forecast a stronger recovery in North America

vs. consensus for the coming years, which is offset by lower numbers in EMEA/APAC,

where we assume the company’s margins move back to historical levels in 2028 (on a

per ton basis). Our 2026 EBITDA is 1% above consensus, and sits within the

company’s guided range of $5.0-5.3bn.

We maintain our Buy rating.