Value Retailers 1H26/2Q26 Preview: Raise earnings on robust store open pace and resilient SSSG; Reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Value Retailers 1H26/2Q26 Preview: Raise earnings on robust store open pace and resilient SSSG; Reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs China Staples

2) Resilient SSSG trends in1H26/2Q26 on concrete growth

initiatives/better-than-feared traffic dilution: We expect 1H26 avg. per-store GMV

still positive in both companies supported by: i) strong Jan-Feb CNY trading with

HSD% per-store GMV growth per mgmt; ii) continued ramp up in SSSG of existing stores;

iii) improved site selection quality in a more rational competitive environment; and iv)

an easy comp, given per-store GMV declined MSD%/teens% in 1H25 for Busy

Ming/Wanchen. That said, both players noted unfavorable impact on per-store GMV

from weather/pax mobility especially in June/Late 2Q.

n Into 2H, we expect avg. per-store GMV growth to moderate sequentially vs. 1H26 on

a higher comp base (Busy Ming/Wanchen returning to positive per store GMV in

3Q/4Q25), while we expect both companies to continue prioritizing store health and

franchisee margins, and category expansion/portfolio upgrades to support

per-store GMV (ie. both successfully added cold-chain and chilled/frozen

categories, ie. at c.3% of total GMV for Wanchen).

3) Store UE remains healthy (key support to store open acceleration) while margin

expansion runway intact: we highlight that store-level franchisee GPM has stayed

stable or improved under disciplined pricing, while payback periods remain attractive

(e.g., c.2 years). At the franchiser level, we continue to expect procurement scale and

logistics optimization to further support GPM expansion, while allowing franchisees to

preserve attractive returns by sharing the gains in a more efficient industry value

chain (F&B brands offering attractive pricings to value retailers channels to enjoy