Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)

Goldman Sachs Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)

Our forward operating estimates are predicated around: a) SpaceX being able to

successfully scale the number of Starship launches, particularly in 2029 and beyond; b)

Starship capacity of 100 metric tons per Starship launch (current payload capacity of v3

vehicles, i.e. not factoring in increased capacity for future versions). Key variables within

our assumptions outlined include: a) the number of satellites per Starship; & b) capacity

of satellites (across broadband, mobile & AI).

Across Connectivity and AI, we make a number of illustrative assumptions to drive our

internal launch forecasts:

n Connectivity. To drive increased broadband & mobile connectivity, we model ~100

Starship and 200 Falcon 9 launches will be allocated to Connectivity payloads

between 2026-2028. More specifically, we believe that a majority of these launches

will be allocated to scaling out broadband downlink capacity.

n AI. We expect that in 2029, orbital compute capacity will scale. Across AI orbital

compute satellites launches, paired with supporting infrastructure launches (incl.

thermal management platforms & potential propellant depots/other), we believe

that 9,400+ Starship vehicle launches will be needed.

Exhibit 6: We assume that SpaceX will increase its total number of launches over the next 5 years

GSe Launch Forecasts

Total Launches Required 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2025-2030

Launches - Total 98 134 165 148 151 253 1,504 2,808 5,467 10,496

y/y increase n/a 36 31 -17 3 102 1,251 1,304 2,659

% y/y growth n/a 37% 23% -10% 2% 68% 494% 87% 95%

Type of Vehicle

Falcon 9 96 134 165 140 115 85 60 50 50 665

External 33 45 43 40 50 50 50 50 50