Brazil Oil & Gas Refiners and Marketers: Data Tank: Our July 2026 Fuel Import Monthly Report

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Brazil Oil & Gas Refiners and Marketers: Data Tank: Our July 2026 Fuel Import Monthly Report

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06 Jul 2026 18:25:43 ET │ 9 pages

Brazil Oil & Gas Refiners and Marketers

Data Tank: Our July 2026 Fuel Import Monthly Report

CITI'S TAKE

According to COMEX STAT data, in July, Brazilian diesel imports amounted

to about 0.6mn m³ (-58% MoM, -55% YoY). Russian diesel accounted for

61% (vs. 72% in May), representing c.0.4m³ (-65% MoM, -48% YoY), and

US diesel 38% (vs. 28% in May). Russian diesel imports offered a discount Gabriel BarraAC

to US diesel, reaching c.–16% in Jun (vs. c.8% in April), leading to an +55-11-4009-2223

average price of c.US$132/bbl vs. US supply at c.US$147/bbl. Currently, gabriel.barra@citi.com

diesel prices in Brazil are below international prices, with a difference of –

Pedro Gama 24% (–R$0.75/L, according to ABICOM, 7/6/2026). In our view, the

numbers came below the normal range, being the lowest since mid-2022, +55-21-4009-0431

pedro.gama@citi.com due to the possible displacement of imported diesel cargoes expected to

arrive in the last week of June to the month of July, explaining the

decrease.

We expect a normal imported level for July, around ~1mn m3, given the opened

import window (considering the subsidy of R$1.12/L) and the normalization in the

international market of oil and its products, after the easing in Middle East conflict,

with likely US supply increasing its share, giving the lower Russian availability and

the Ukrainian attacks on refineries (07/06/2026, OPIS). Furthermore, according to

newswires, Petrobras may return to import diesel in July, after no imports during

April – June (UOL, 06/25/2026). Combined with the easing in international market,

Petrobras recently decreased its diesel price by R$0.35/L, on the end of the subsidy