Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

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Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

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Citi's Most Read – Economics

June 29 - July 5 06 Jul 2026 06:52:54 ET

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US Economics Weekly - The case for hikes was just revised away

Soft job growth in June and downward revisions to prior months will relieve

hawkish concerns that the Fed might need to raise policy rates. The drop in the

unemployment rate to 4.2% was entirely due to a drop in the participation rate,

making it increasingly likely in our view that unemployment will rise in the next

couple of months. With headline inflation having peaked and core PCE set to be

revised lower in September, any case for hikes is disappearing. In our base case,

rising unemployment leads the Fed to return to rate cuts in October.

Andrew Hollenhorst | Veronica Clark | Gisela Young

Payroll job growth slowed in June with …alongside an even larger drop in labor force

revisions lower to previous months participation

Payroll growth Payroll growth - 12mth MA Participation rate

250 Payroll growth - 6mth MA Payroll growth - 3mth MA

62.8

200 62.6

thous 150 62.4

growth, 10050 62.262.0

job

0 61.8

61.6 Monthly -50

61.4

-100 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26

-150

Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26

US Economics Weekly - The economy is not overheating

Front-end Treasury yields have fallen from their post-FOMC highs. We see further

room for markets to price-out hikes and price-in cuts as we expect softer

upcoming labor market data – including a weak 25k advance in payrolls next week.