India Specialty Chemicals

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India Specialty Chemicals

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03 Jul 2026 07:05:33 ET │ 15 pages

1QFY27 Preview: Ref-gas Pricing Strength; Agchem Likely Muted

CITI'S TAKE

Tejas Pradhan AC

We expect a mixed 1QFY27 across the agrochemical and fluorochemical +91-22-6175-9861

space. Refrigerant gas manufacturers are likely to continue to benefit from tejas.pradhan@citi.com

elevated prices, supported by constrained Chinese supply under Montreal

Protocol-related quotas. As a result, SRF and Navin Fluorine are likely to

deliver healthy EBITDA growth, with SRF (+17% yoy) benefiting from

stronger refrigerant realizations and Navin (+58% yoy) additionally

supported by the ramp-up of its agrochemical capacity and CDMO

segment. Overall agchem exports were likely subdued, with innovators

likely adopting a cautious procurement approach amid global uncertainties.

We expect PI Industries EBITDA to be down ~9% yoy driven by soft

pyroxasulfone shipments ahead of generic competition in the US

(registrations by ADAMA, Lier Chemical). Maintain Sell on SRF/Navin/PI on

downside risks to ref gas prices through CY27 and muted outlook for

agchem exports. Within our coverage we prefer Navin>SRF>PI.

1Q Trends —

– SRF: We expect 1Q EBITDA to be up ~17% yoy (down ~5% qoq) driven by higher

refrigerant gas pricing while agro specialty chemical sales are likely to remain

muted. India’s R32 export prices continue to be strong at ~$7/kg (vs. ~$5.5/kg in

1QFY26) as supply from China remains limited due to quota under the Montreal

Protocol. $1/kg increase in R32 price impact’s SRF’s EBITDA by ~7%. Agro

specialty chemical sales were likely muted in 1Q as uncertainties stemming from

the Middle East conflict may have led innovators to adopt a more cautious

procurement approach. Given that products currently being sourced would