2Q26 Preview: The Debate Moves Into Uncharted Territory; Downgrading Industry View to In-Line

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2Q26 Preview: The Debate Moves Into Uncharted Territory; Downgrading Industry View to In-Line

Foundation

July 6, 2026 05:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Preview: The Debate Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Moves Into Uncharted Territory; Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Downgrading Industry View to

Freight Transportation

North America

Industry View In-LineIn-Line

What’s Changed

We are more convinced than ever on the strength of the Freight Transportation From To

Industry View Attractive In-Line

upcycle, though the debate now moves on to how high the

J.B. Hunt Transport Services

record upcycle will peak and how structural the gains are. Inc. (JBHT.O) From To

However, it would be naïve to ignore significant stock moves and Rating Equal-weight Underweight

Price Target $190.00 $200.00

relative valuation dislocations across the group.

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc

(ODFL.O) From To

Key Takeaways Rating Overweight Equal-weight

Price Target $235.00 $245.00

Downgrading our industry view from Attractive to In-Line as stretched valuations

Landstar System Inc (LSTR.O) From To

offset our increasingly bullish cycle outlook, even as we raise ests and PTs. Rating Equal-weight Underweight

We remain highly constructive on the freight cycle, expecting a record upcycle ArcBest Corp (ARCB.O) From To

driven by continued supply constraints and a recovering demand backdrop. Price Target $150.00 $180.00

However, record freight indicators (TLFI, TLSS, spot rates) shift the debate from XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO.N) From To

Price Target $105.00 $115.00