Ryanair (RYA.I): Updating estimates ahead of FQ1, remain Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ryanair (RYA.I): Updating estimates ahead of FQ1, remain Neutral

Equity Research

6 July 2026 | 3:46AM CEST

Raise FY27 net profit Patrick Creuset

+33(1)4212-1380 |

We raise our FY27 net income estimate from €1.92bn to €2.04bn as we reflect lower patrick.creuset@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

fuel costs, while making marginal upward adjustments to our FQ1/2 fare estimates Branch

taking into account slightly better late booking momentum from our fare trackers. Dan-Arthur Coseru

We expect the company could potentially adjust its FQ2 fare guide from flat to +44(20)7552-2216arthur.coseru@gs.com| dan-

slightly up. Our net profit estimates are 1-2% ahead of consensus (Visible Alpha Goldman Sachs International

Nathan ArnaudConsensus Data) for FQ1/2, and 2% ahead for FY27 Exhibit 1. +33(1)4212-1691 |

nathan.arnaud@gs.com

Branch

Leave FY28-30 net profit broadly unchanged

Our FY28-30 net profit estimates remain broadly unchanged on average, as we still

expect a relatively subdued short haul trading environment, with higher seat

capacity in 2026-27 resulting in lower pricing power than in prior years. Fuel costs

remain an important factor for next year, albeit still uncertain depending on the

evolution of jetfuel prices and hedging. Given how well-hedged RYA is for the current

FY, we still expect unit fuel costs to rise yoy in FY28. On cash flow, we continue to

expect a significant increase in capex, from €2bn in FY27 to €2.7bn in FY28, €3.2bn

in FY29, and €3.8bn in FY30 (in line with consensus on FY27/28, above for FY29/30

as we reflect higher maintenance related spend) Exhibit 6.

Our 12m, EV/EBITDAR-based price target increases to €28 (from €27) on slightly

higher earnings estimates, and we remain Neutral rated. At the last close price, the