Hiring slows as unemployment falls: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hiring slows as unemployment falls: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

3 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Hiring slows as unemployment

falls

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: US nonfarm payrolls increased 57k in June, while the figures for the two prior months

Apostolos Apostolou

were revised downward. Unemployment edged down to 4.2%. Real yields modestly steepened +1 212 526 5051

on a carry-adjusted basis on Thursday: 2y -1.1bp, 5y +0.9bp, 10y +0.7bp, and 30y +1.2bp. The apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

breakeven curve was largely unchanged on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y +0.0bp, 2y -0.3bp, BCI, US

5y -0.9bp, 10y +0.2bp, and 30y +0.5bp. In forward breakevens: 1y1y -0.5bp, 2y3y -0.8bp, 5y5y

+1.1bp, and 10y20y +0.8. Markets are closed tomorrow, in observance of the July 4th holiday.

This week, we discussed a tactical long view, expressed via 5y5y CPI swaps. We also examined

the effect of AI on inflation.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: Spain tapped the BONOSei36 in 695mn; bid to cover was 2.0bp, and

there was no concession. Real yields steepened: 2y +0bp, 5y +1bp, 10y +2bp, and 30y +3bp.

Breakevens sold off modestly: 1y +1bp, 2y -1bp, 5y -1bp, 10y -1bp, and 30y +0bp. HICPx also

moderately sold off: 1y -1bp, 2y -2bp, 5y -1bp, 10y -1bp, and 30y -1bp. In the forward space, 1y1y

was 3bp lower and 2y3y was 1bp lower.

UK RPI: Real yields were little changed on Thursday: 2y +0bp, 5y -1bp, 10y +0bp, and 30y -1bp.

Breakevens modestly steepened: 1y -2bp, 2y -2bp, 5y +0bp, 10y +1bp, and 30y +2bp. The DMO

announced that the third transaction of the 2026-27 syndication programme will be a reopening