Aker BP (AKRBP.OL) 2Q26 Trading Update and Pre-Print Positioning Check

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Aker BP (AKRBP.OL) 2Q26 Trading Update and Pre-Print Positioning Check

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03 Jul 2026 03:24:12 ET │ 16 pages

Aker BP (AKRBP.OL)

2Q26 Trading Update and Pre-Print Positioning Check

CITI'S TAKE

Aker BP’s 2Q production was c.1% below consensus, with the shortfall fully

attributable to a 3-week planned maintenance at Eiga. We still see upside

risk to FY26 production guidance, supported by strong 1Q outturn, early Neutral

Symra start-up, the Johan Sverdrup re-determination uplift and Skarv Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires 24-JUL-26

satellite volumes from 3Q. Realisations were broadly in line, while the

Price (02 Jul 26 17:30) NKr304.40expected working-capital release should lift 2Q post-WC CFFO to c.$3.1B,

on our estimates, and reduce leverage to c.0.6x ND/Trailing 12M CFFO from Target price NKr315.00

1.0x in 1Q. Positioning remains constructive into the 2Q print, but at c.4 Expected share price return 3.5%

NTM EV/DACF, we think formally introducing upside to the current

Expected dividend yield 8.7%shareholder return framework is increasingly important to sustain investor

engagement now that the windfall period has concluded. Expected total return 12.2%

Market Cap NKr192,388M

2Q26 Trading Statement — Aker BP reported 2Q production of 383.6 kboepd,c.1% US$19,532M

below VisibleAlpha consensus of 388 kboepd and around the midpoint of its 370-

400 kboepd FY26 guidance range. The shortfall was driven by a 3-week planned

maintenance shutdown at Eiga in May, which reduced quarterly production by c.12

kboepd. Despite the softer quarter, we still see scope for Aker BP to raise the

bottom-end of its FY26 production guidance, supported by the strong 1Q Price Performance

production, a c.3kboepd uplift from the Johan Sverdrup re-determination from 3Q, (RIC: AKRBP.OL, BB: AKRBP NO)