Aker BP (AKRBP.OL): Next in line to Boost Shareholder Returns

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Aker BP (AKRBP.OL): Next in line to Boost Shareholder Returns

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24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 19 pages

Aker BP (AKRBP.OL)

Next in Line to Boost Shareholder Returns

CITI'S TAKE

Aker BP is the last of the Norwegian Big 3 yet to announce how it will use its

windfall resulting from the Middle East conflict. Equinor has doubled its

2026 buyback, while Var Energi is considering a year-end extraordinary

dividend. Aker has benefited less given 2026 is the final year of peak capex, Neutral

but we still think it has enough surplus FCF to act. At c.$85/bbl realized oil Catalyst Watch: Upsideversus the $65/bbl base-case assumption behind the company’s February

CMD plan, we estimate c.$600mn of deployable FCF after allowing for the Price (23 Jun 26 17:30) NKr315.60

higher Norwegian cash tax due in 1H27. What surprises us is that Aker’s Target price NKr315.00

positioning has remained strong as of 23 June despite the peace-deal Expected share price return -0.2%unwind, suggesting the market may already be anticipating some uplift in

shareholder returns. Even so, we think the recent pullback could offer near- Expected dividend yield 8.4%

term upside ahead of a potential reset. Expected total return 8.2%

Market Cap NKr199,466M

A smaller windfall, but still enough to act — Management’s February 2026 CMD

US$20,580Mplanning case was built on $65/bbl oil, which we estimate would have left Aker close

to FCF breakeven in 2026. At Citi Macro’s latest $81/bbl 2026e Brent assumption,

we estimate Aker could realize c.$85/bbl, generating c.$1.5bn of incremental FCF.

Norway’s six-month cash tax lag means c.$0.9bn comes back out through higher

cash tax in 1H27, leaving c.$600mn that can be deployed without compromising the Price Performance

balance sheet.