UAE Real Estate & Property: Key Jun‘26 & 2Q26 Sector Trends

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UAE Real Estate & Property: Key Jun‘26 & 2Q26 Sector Trends

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03 Jul 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 14 pages

UAE Real Estate & Property

Key Jun’26 & 2Q26 Sector Trends

CITI'S TAKE

Rahul Bajaj, CFA AC

The UAE real estate market has been in a state of major flux since the start of +971-46044894

the conflict. We revisit our monthly real estate tracker analyzing Jun (and 2Q26) rahul.bajaj@citi.com

data as of 1st Jul’26. Key observations: 1) Jun’26 data points to a MoM recovery

in transaction values (vs. May lows) - but well below pre‑conflict levels, 2) 2Q26 Nitesh Agarwal

QoQ real estate transaction values down c.40% in Dubai, c.25% in Abu Dhabi, +91-22-4277-5161

and 3) Dubai (AD to a lesser extent) recorded notable weakness in price nitesh.agarwal@citi.com

momentum in Mar–May, reflecting evolving supply-demand backdrop. We

summarize key findings below. See Figures 21-24 for summary data.

Dubai Residential Sales up MoM in Jun but 2Q Notably Below 1Q Levels — Monthly

residential sales in Dubai recovered in Jun’26 - transaction volumes rising c. 32% MoM

– albeit still ~20% below Jan–Feb’26 (pre conflict) avg. run rate. Note May real estate

transaction volumes were particularly depressed - partly also impacted by week-long

Eid break. Jun volumes were down c. 20% on YoY basis. Similarly, while Jun sales value

(at AED 27.9bn) increased ~16% MoM, it stayed c.50% below the pre‑conflict avg. (c. -

43% YoY). In aggregate for 2Q26, transaction volumes were down 20% vs. 1Q26 (-27%

YoY) while total value of transactions in 2Q26 (at AED 93.6bn) were 38% lower QoQ (-

39% YoY). Apartments continued to dominate volume mix at c. 94% of total Jun’26

transactions. Off-plan sale values were up 9% MoM in Jun, but down 24% QoQ for

2Q26 (at AED 60.2bn). Please see figures 1 to 6 for detail.