What comes after Copa Mundial?

研报英文原文证据摘录

What comes after Copa Mundial?

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Constellation Brands

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 145.00 USD | Price: 136.88 USD

June depletes up on host WC & Knicks…July read next step 01 July 2026

Post 1Q27 earnings Q&A, we think biggest unanswered question for STZ is where beer Equity

depletions trend over the remainder of the summer as Q1 was lackluster. June showed

improvement on strength of US World Cup and NY Knicks celebrations (both occurring in

Key Changesheavily STZ represented markets), but enthusiasm could fade if there is not follow

through on rest of summer. Shipment build in Q1 is likely to reverse over the remainder (US$) Previous Current

of the fiscal year; net our Beer sales estimates are largely unchanged. Profits/margins Price Obj. 152.00 145.00

for FY27 appear de-risked, however stock likely stuck in limbo until topline trends 2027E Rev (m) 9,049.5 9,065.6

reaccelerate. Maintain Underperform. 2028E Rev (m) 9,187.3 9,203.6

2029E Rev (m) 9,327.2 9,343.8

2027E EPS 11.57 11.70Q1 Beer Shipments likely to unwind as year progresses

Q1 over-shipped beer consumption by ~5mm cases (above historical seasonal trend in 2028E EPS 12.27 12.28

Q1 of ~3mm), which is expected to reverse largely in Q3 of this year. Q2 and Q4 should 2029E EPS 13.14 13.16

see shipments/depletions in absolute terms largely aligned, though YoY growth rates are 2027E DPS 4.41 4.12

likely to differ in Q2 as STZ laps destocking at distributors on the shipment side from

last summer. Net we expect shipment growth rate in Q2 to exceed depletion growth by Peter T. Galbo, CFA

Research Analyst

~350bps. BofAS

+1 646 743 0175

FY27 modeling call outs peter.galbo@bofa.com

Christian Junquera

We raise our FY27 EPSe to $11.70 from $11.57, primarily reflecting the 1Q EPS beat. Research Analyst