Pasture being seeded: Buy before the harvest

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pasture being seeded: Buy before the harvest

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Almarai

Pasture being seeded: Buy before the

harvest

Reinstating Coverage: BUY | PO: 67.30 SAR | Price: 46.20 SAR

SAR67.30 PO implies 46% potential upside 02 July 2026

We reinstate coverage on Almarai at Buy, based on 46% potential upside per our DCF-

Equity

derived PO of SAR67.30. We are 5%/6% ahead of consensus EPS for 2026E/2027E

respectively, based on flow-through of Almarai’s June 2026 9-17% price increases in Mohsen Ameeri >>

fresh dairy items. Longer-term, we see (i) revenue 27% higher in 2028E vs. 2025 based Research Analyst Merrill Lynch KSA Company

on adding SAR2.5bn contribution from Almarai’s 1.5x expansion of poultry capacity to +966 112 993 741

450mm birds pa; (ii) 7.5% DPS CAGR 2025A–30E as Almarai shifts deployment of mohsen.ameeri@bofa.com

operating cashflow (~25% of revenue) from its SAR18bn capex plan to distributions; and Michael Jacks, CFA >> Research Analyst

(iii) an attractive entry point, with Almarai trading at 17.4x P/E vs 23.7x 10-year average. Merrill Lynch (South Africa)

+27 113 055 158

Counting chickens: production up 1.5x, pricing recovery michael.jacks@bofa.com

Jameel Bakhsh, CFA >>

Almarai leads the Saudi fresh poultry market with 35% share and is currently investing Research Analyst

SAR7bn to raise capacity by 1.5x, with the goal of taking share from imports as the Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

+971 4 425 8252

Saudi government targets 90% self-sufficiency in poultry by 2030E (vs. 72% 2024A). jameel.bakhsh@bofa.com

Almarai grew poultry revenue 12.3% Y-o-Y in Q1 2026, selling its entire production at

improving prices based on strong brand equity. We see poultry generating an average

1.5% point higher segment net margin than the core dairy and juice business over

Stock Data

2026E–30E.