The Trade Desk, Inc.: Cloudy near-term outlook

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The Trade Desk, Inc.: Cloudy near-term outlook

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The Trade Desk, Inc.

Cloudy near-term outlook

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 18.00 USD | Price: 19.15 USD

2Q Preview: Publicis dispute clouds outlook 02 July 2026

We forecast that The Trade Desk’s (TTD) 2Q26 results will reflect guidance as well as Equity

the impact from the Publicis dispute. TTD’s 2Q outlook implies a revenue growth

deceleration in the quarter reflecting limited near-term visibility and a more cautious Jessica Reif Ehrlich Research Analyst

demand environment. The quarter will further be complicated by the Publicis disruption, BofAS

with spend shift throughout the period and some indirect brand caution creating a +1jessica.reif@bofa.com646 855 2921

negative short-term impact. We have previously estimated that Publicis accounted for Brent Navon, CFA

~$2bn of spend on TTD’s platform in CY25 (see report linked here), but the magnitude Research Analyst

BofAS

of spend impact from this dispute is difficult for us to forecast. Outside of Publicis, the +1 646 855 3827

underlying ad backdrop does not appear to have deteriorated materially. Historically, brent.navon@bofa.com

there is moderate improvement following a typically short disruption period related to Peter Henderson

Research Analyst

geopolitical turmoil. BofAS

+1 646 855 4564

Is a trough on the horizon? peter2.henderson@bofa.com

David Plaus

While 2Q will likely be a messy transition quarter, with muted expectations, the more Research Analyst

important debate is whether this marks the bottom for TTD’s revenue growth. The BofAS +1 646 855 1572

Publicis dispute is now resolved which should benefit 3Q vs. 2Q, although it is unclear to david.plaus@bofa.com

us if there will be a lingering overhang or concerns from advertisers.