Brazil Agricultural Products: Data Crop: Our Jul’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

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Brazil Agricultural Products: Data Crop: Our Jul’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

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02 Jul 2026 13:04:05 ET │ 34 pages

Brazil Agricultural Products

Data Crop: Our Jul’26 Agribusiness Monthly Report

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

In this report, we cover the Brazilian agribusiness market, discussing +55-11-4009-2223

implications for our coverage in the sector and our outlook for Agribusiness gabriel.barra@citi.com

coverage. See our charts on the sector inside.

Pedro Gama

S&E (Sugar and Ethanol) — The outlook for the sugar market is bullish, driven by a +55-21-4009-0431

tightening global balance and significant weather risks. The market is pricing in a pedro.gama@citi.com

transition from a modest surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit of c.1mn tons in 2026/27.

This view is reinforced by Citi's tactically bullish stance, with price targets of

US$17c/lb (3-month) and US$19c/lb (12-month). After dipping to ~US$13.5 c/lb in

mid-June, prices recovered to ~US$14c/lb, supported by a confluence of weather

disruptions: Exceptionally wet conditions in Brazil (June rainfall was above normal,

causing significant harvest delays), the weakest monsoon in over a decade in India,

and a heatwave in Europe. The risk is amplified by a strengthening El Niño, with

NOAA increasing the likelihood of a "very strong" event. The structural shift to

ethanol remains a core pillar of the bullish thesis. While Brazil's E32 mandate

approval was postponed, creating near-term uncertainty, India announced plans to

roll out E85 fuel starting in 2026, signaling massive future demand for sucrose that

will further tighten the global sugar supply.

Grains — In June, grain prices faced significant headwinds, with CBOT soybean and

corn contracts falling to ~US$11.3/bu and ~US$4.2/bu, respectively, pressured by