Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

'26 JUL '27

Pricing Power: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Secular Growth: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 1 Jul

2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $575.00 BASE CASE $500.00 BEAR CASE $325.00

~32.0x blended 2027/28 EPS of $18.07 ~30.0x blended 2027/28 EPS of $16.69 ~24.0x blended 2027/28 EPS of $13.41

We forecast sustained LDD growth through We assume ETN returns to LDD organic in We model organic decelerating to MSD,

2028 w/ Electrical Americas holding low- 2026/27, but below 2022/23 levels, assuming Americas decelerates sharply on

teens, Electrical Global ramping to LDD with benefitting added capacity and uplift from project delays & backlog burn along and

Boyd tailwinds, and Aero averaging LDD. We Boyd. We model continued LDD organic for cont'd softness for Electrical Global on soft

model Mobility organic accelerating to Elec Americas, supported by megatrends EU + APAC macro. With softer volumes &

MSD+ on market recovery and new model and record backlog. We model Elec Global pricing power, we forecast incrementals

launches. We forecast mid- to high-30% ramping to HSD, driven by Boyd tailwinds, remaining in the 20s through 2028

incrementals in 2027/28, as capacity comes and Aero easing to HSD. We model low 20s following the 35-40% average in 2023/24.

on line.