Wizz Air (WIZZ.L): Cutting Estimates Despite Lower Fuel, Remaining Neutral/High Risk

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Wizz Air (WIZZ.L): Cutting Estimates Despite Lower Fuel, Remaining Neutral/High Risk

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02 Jul 2026 07:45:33 ET │ 14 pages

Wizz Air (WIZZ.L)

Cutting Estimates Despite Lower Fuel, Remaining Neutral/High Risk

CITI’S TAKE

Despite falling fuel costs since the US-Iran conflict peak we revise near-

Neutral / High Risk term numbers down on a weaker run rate for unit revenue and ex-fuel

Price (02 Jul 26 08:23) £11.91 costs. For FY27 to March we expect a net loss of -c€500m (company

consensus: -c€360m), and -€200m in 1Q27 (company consensus: - Target price £12.00↑

€€170m). For the full year we model unit revenue at -3% y/y, with declines from £10.00

weighted more heavily to 1H27 than 2H27. Despite high capacity growth Expected share price return 0.8%

for the year (+20% ASKs y/y) we expect non-fuel unit cost to increase on Expected dividend yield 0.0%

both an underlying (excl. SLB gains and P&W compensation) and total Expected total return 0.8%

basis. Rectifying these trends will be key for Wizz’s competitiveness in the

Market Cap £1,511M coming 2-3 years. We continue to view consensus as overly optimistic in

US$1,999M the medium term, and are -37% below expectations for FY28-30 on

average; we think the market is similarly minded. We remain Neutral/High

Risk, with our TP moving to 1,200p (from 1,000p).

Conor DwyerAC

TP Increase from 1,000p to 1,200p — Despite cutting near term estimates our outer +44-20-7986-2824

year operating margin remains unchanged at c7%, while we take down cash outflows conor.dwyer@citi.com

relating to pre-delivery payments which helps with cash conversion in the next 2-3

years. This, coupled with 1) the time value of money and 2) very high gearing in the

enterprise value are the main drivers of our price target increase from 1,000p to

1,2000p.