The SMID Point

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The SMID Point

respectively, with recent upside to these estimates driven by Semis and Hardware.

Headed into 2H we expect the broadening theme to assert. A wind down of the

Iran conflict with read throughs per lower oil and, potentially, inflation concerns

sets up for a repositioning consideration. Citi Economists project mostly resilient

economic conditions, with a growing impact from AI investment. Fed rate hike

fears may be overblown. Commodities strategists see lower oil. Our Quant team

favors growth. While AI tailwinds will remain critical to the US equity narrative, we

see opportunity in stock selection across industries, thus making our Mid-Year

Road Ahead a must read for clients.

Scott T Chronert | Nathan Sheets | Andrew Hollenhorst | Richard W Schlatter | Maximilian J Layton

US Airlines - Chart of the Day: JBLU On-Time Perf. Improving, LUV Deteriorating,

Supermajors Stable

We recently issued our 2Q26 EPS preview (see 2Q26 Preview: Group Higher Before

Lower; Upgrading ALGT ... ). One area of follow ups has been whether we see any

evidence of operational/execution issues (or opportunities) across airlines heading

into 2Q. It doesn't change our views, but it's worth noting that there are some

divergences that have occurred in the on-time performance data of late. Most

notably, JBLU has seen a sharp improvement in on-time performance vs 1Q levels,

which were in part impacted by heavy northeast winter storm activity. On the other

hand, LUV has seen on-time performance deteriorate vs peers in recent months.

Finally, DAL, UAL, and ALK have generally maintained leadership in on-time

performance. This data may add some nuance to airline performance through EPS

season, but ultimately doesn't impact our over-arching view that the supermajors