From Innovation to Productivity Boom: Lessons from the ICT Revolution for the AI Era

研报英文原文证据摘录

From Innovation to Productivity Boom: Lessons from the ICT Revolution for the AI Era

Economics Research

1 July 2026 | 5:17PM EDT

US ECONOMICS ANALYST

From Innovation to Productivity Boom: Lessons from the ICT Revolution

for the AI Era

n We expect AI to meaningfully boost productivity growth over the next decade. Elsie Peng

+1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com

Already, dozens of research studies and corporate anecdotes show evidence of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

large productivity gains at the micro level in a range of applications. But key

questions for both equity and macro investors are when and where we might first

see evidence of AI-driven productivity gains at the macro level.

n We look back at the information and communications technology revolution (ICT)

from roughly 1980-2000 to draw insights from history. A key lesson of that

period is that the path from technological innovation to broad-based

productivity gains is neither fast nor uniform.

n When did the impact of ICT on productivity first appear? The ICT productivity

boom arrived 15 years after the commercialization of the personal computer.

While ICT investment began rising sharply in the early 1980s, industry-level data

show that its impact on productivity followed a J-curve: a modest drag on

measured productivity growth in the first four years, with clear gains emerging

only after eight years and peaking at year twelve. The impact was slow because

key ICT component costs were initially high, network effects did not kick in until

adoption reached a critical mass, and human and institutional impediments

slowed technology adoption and were only gradually overcome with substantial

investment in intangible organizational capital.

n Where did convincing evidence that ICT was boosting productivity first appear?