US Daily: June Payrolls Preview

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US Daily: June Payrolls Preview

Goldman Sachs US Daily

June Payrolls Preview

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 130k in June, above consensus of +115k but

below the three-month average of +188k. We estimate that private payrolls increased by

95k, below consensus of 115k.

We describe the factors we considered in our forecast in greater detail below.

Arguing for a stronger report:

n World Cup hiring. Data from Homebase suggests that employment grew more

quickly in World Cup host cities between the May and June survey weeks. Our

historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in

June, and that its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality,

professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors.

Exhibit 1: Data from Homebase Suggests That World Cup Hiring Could Boost Payrolls Growth in June; History Suggests

That Most of the Impact Should Be Concentrated in the Leisure and Hospitality, Business Services, and Trade and

Transportation Sectors

Percentage points Percentage points

1.6 Homebase: Job Growth Since May 1, World Cup 1.6

Host Cities vs. Rest of Country

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0

May-1 May-10 May-19 May-28 Jun-6 Jun-15 Jun-24

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Homebase

n June first-print bias. Nonfarm payrolls exhibit a clear tendency toward strong June

first prints, which appears to reflect a recurring seasonal outperformance of the first

vintage relative to the final vintage. This can happen because the final vintages are

used to calculate the seasonal factors, which are consequently not guaranteed to be

appropriate for the initial vintages. Exhibit 2 shows that the initial June reading has