US Macroscope: Decomposing recent Russell 2000 outperformance and the second-half outlook for small caps

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US Macroscope: Decomposing recent Russell 2000 outperformance and the second-half outlook for small caps

Goldman Sachs US Macroscope

Why have small-caps performed so well this year?

The Russell 2000 has returned 23% in the first half of 2026, outperforming the S&P

500 by 12 percentage points YTD. This represents one of the strongest semiannual

periods of small-cap outperformance during the last 30 years. During the past 12

months, the 18 percentage point excess return of the Russell 2000 vs. the S&P 500 ranks

in the 95th percentile since 1995. However, this recent strength reverses only a small

portion of the cumulative Russell 2000 underperformance of the past 15 years, during

which the S&P 500 has generated nearly twice its total return (680% vs. 375%).

Exhibit 1: The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 Exhibit 2: The Russell 2000 has recently outperformed the

by 12 pp YTD S&P 500 but lagged for most of the past decade

25pp 130

Russell 2000

20pp H2 2020 120 outperforming

H1 2001 16 pp H1 2026

15pp 14 pp H2 2016 12 pp 110

11 pp

10pp 100

5pp

0pp

(5)pp

(10)pp Russell 2000 Indexed total return of

semiannual return 60 Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500(15)pp

vs. S&P 500

(20)pp

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Going forward, Russell 2000 index outperformance will likely fade in the second half

of the year, but the small-cap universe should remain exceptionally fertile ground

for alpha generation. Coming into 2026, the combination of an accelerating economy

and easing Fed created an ideal backdrop for small-caps. Those macro dynamics appear

less favorable in the back half of the year. In addition, the AI trade has been a major